Romania's Inflation Rate
Romania recorded the highest inflation rate in the European Union at 8.2% in July 2026. This is a decrease from 9.2% in June, according to Eurostat data released on August 19. The EU average rose slightly to 3% from 2.9% during the same period.
Lithuania had the second-highest inflation rate at 5.4%. Cyprus and Bulgaria each recorded 4.4%. In contrast, Sweden had the lowest annual inflation rate at 0.3%. Czechia reported 1.3%, while both Denmark and Hungary had rates of 1.6%.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026. It increased the forecast from 3.9% to 6.1%. For the end of 2027, the BNR expects an inflation rate of 2.9%. This change reflects ongoing effects from fiscal measures introduced in 2025 and early 2026. Supply shocks affecting energy prices also play a role. These shocks are influenced by events like the US-Iran war and low Danube water levels. The BNR expects inflation to return to its target range of 2.5% +/-1 percentage point by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Services were the largest contributor to inflation in Romania, increasing by 13.67%. Non-food goods rose by 7.93%, while food prices went up by 5.03%. These numbers highlight the ongoing challenges for the Romanian economy in managing inflation.
Related coverage: Romania’s Energy Production Declines 2.6% in H1 2026.
The high inflation rate in Romania could affect consumer spending and economic growth. This is especially true in sectors sensitive to price changes, such as retail and services. Investors may react to possible changes in monetary policy by the BNR, which could impact the Romanian leu and related assets.
Watch for the BNR's upcoming monetary policy meeting. Further adjustments to interest rates may be discussed in response to these inflation trends.
Based on reporting by: romania-insider.com