Middle East Oil Exports Estimated at 9-15 Million Bpd Amid

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed this week that oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day (bpd), exceeding pre-war averages of 20 million bpd. However, vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts dispute this figure, estimating that actual flows are between 9 million bpd and 12 million bpd, according to various sources. Analysts noted that tracking oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly difficult due to covert operations by tanker vessels.

Key Details

Despite the ongoing Iran conflict, Middle Eastern producers are reportedly managing to transport significant volumes of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf. This activity is crucial for maintaining global oil prices, which have remained relatively stable between $80 and $90 per barrel, far below the $150 per barrel levels some analysts had predicted at the onset of the conflict. The covert nature of these shipments, often referred to as 'dark' operations, has allowed producers to mitigate potential supply shocks, although the situation remains precarious due to ongoing threats to shipping.

Background

Wright stated that the U.S. Department of Energy possesses the most accurate data regarding oil flows, suggesting that private tracking services may underestimate the volume of oil leaving the region. He emphasized that many ships are operating covertly to avoid detection, complicating efforts to obtain precise figures. However, analysts like Matt Smith from Kpler have expressed skepticism about the official claims, noting that their data does not support such high estimates of oil exports.

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Based on reporting by: oilprice.com, livemint.com