The European Union could reduce its natural gas demand by approximately 25% by 2030 if it meets its renewable energy targets, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The study estimates that achieving these targets could save the EU twice the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) it expects to import from Qatar by that year.
Key Details
The IEEFA report highlights that the deployment of heat pumps, solar, and wind energy is crucial for this reduction. It estimates that in 2024, these technologies will displace around 8.8 billion cubic meters of LNG, equivalent to about two-thirds of the EU's imports of Qatari LNG. The EU aims to install at least 4 million heat pumps, 75 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, and 22 GW of wind capacity annually over the next five years to achieve these goals.
Background
Despite progress, the EU is currently off track to meet its renewable energy targets. Provisional Eurostat figures indicate that the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption reached 26.2% last year, up from 25.2% in 2024, but still short of the 42.5% target for 2030. The IEEFA report emphasizes that while the EU has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, it has increased its reliance on LNG imports, which rose by 84% between 2021 and 2025, exposing the bloc to new geopolitical risks.
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A significant reduction in gas demand could impact LNG markets, particularly affecting prices and trade dynamics with key suppliers like Qatar and the U.S. This shift may lead to lower import costs for the EU if achieved. Investors will watch for the EU's progress on its renewable energy targets, particularly any updates on installation rates and policy changes in the coming months.