China’s Economy Grows 4.5% in Q3, Driven by Export Boom

China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. This growth surpassed analysts' expectations and was up from 4.3% in the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The growth is mainly due to a surge in exports, especially in technology sectors driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. For the first nine months of the year, GDP growth reached 4.6%. This aligns with Beijing's target of 4.5% to 5% for the year.

Export Surge

Exports increased significantly, with a rise of over 36% in September alone. This increase was driven by demand for semiconductors and AI-related products. Industrial production also rose by 5.5% in September. However, retail sales lagged, increasing only 1.1%. Analysts noted that the gap between strong export performance and weak domestic consumption shows structural imbalances in the economy. Fixed-asset investment fell by 7.2% in the first nine months. This indicates ongoing challenges in the property sector, which has faced a downturn for several years.

Economic Outlook

Despite the positive growth figures, experts warn that reliance on external demand poses risks. Max Zenglein, a senior economist at The Conference Board, said that the headline growth figure hides widening disparities across industries and households. The International Monetary Fund has also revised its forecast for China's growth. It now projects that China will meet only the lower end of Beijing's target. Analysts expect that the government may avoid additional stimulus measures due to the recent growth.

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Based on reporting by: theguardian.com, businesstimes.com.sg