Thailand's finance ministry has increased its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% from a previous estimate of 1.6%, citing robust foreign trade and government stimulus measures. The revision follows a report showing that June exports surged 20.8% year-on-year, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 16.85% increase, according to ministry data released on July 24.
Key Details
Shipments to the United States, Thailand's largest export market, rose 44.3% in June compared to the same month last year. This significant growth in exports is expected to support the overall economic recovery. The ministry forecasts that private investment will expand by 9% this year, while private consumption is projected to grow by 2.7%.
Background
Despite a record trade deficit of $6.53 billion in June, the ministry maintains its export growth forecast at 8% for the year. The increase in imports, which rose 50.3% year-on-year, contributed to the deficit but reflects strong domestic demand. Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office, indicated that the impact of a new 12.5% US tariff on Thai exports should be limited, as electronic products, which constitute over 50% of exports, are exempt from the tariff.
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The stronger-than-expected export performance is likely to bolster the Thai baht and support equities linked to export-driven sectors. Investors will watch for further trade data and government measures that could influence the economic outlook.