Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia is preparing potential military provocations in the Baltic states or Poland, aiming to test the unity of NATO amid ongoing pressures from Ukraine's long-range attacks. This warning, issued on Monday, indicates that while Russia may not be capable of launching a full-scale attack, it could engage in hybrid tactics, including missile and drone strikes, to send a message to NATO members.
Sources from NATO have echoed these concerns, suggesting that the Kremlin might be willing to gamble on the support of the alliance for its smaller member states, such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This comes as Russia faces challenges in its invasion of Ukraine, with its military advances reportedly stalling.
Experts note that the Kremlin's strategy could involve creating distractions or crises in neighboring countries to divert attention from its struggles in Ukraine. Keir Giles, a Russia analyst at Chatham House, emphasized that Moscow is likely seeking ways to disrupt the current situation, potentially through horizontal escalation to other regions. The lack of detailed intelligence supporting these provocations contrasts with the extensive warnings issued prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, raising questions about the seriousness of the current threats.
As tensions rise, NATO's response and readiness to support its eastern members will be closely scrutinized, particularly in light of recent developments in the region.