Following the U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump faces major challenges with his Iran strategy. The Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress, raising questions about possible military actions against Iran in the near future. Trump’s Vice President JD Vance linked the electoral defeat to the ongoing conflict with Iran, saying, "The reason we lost is the war," a view Trump called "largely true."
Potential Military Actions
Analysts believe Trump may have a short window to increase military actions against Iran before the new Congress meets on January 3. Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA predicts a high chance of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran between mid-November and mid-December. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of FGE NexantECA, said the strikes would aim to weaken Iran further and pressure them in future talks. The consultancy expects oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually recover by March 2027, but Iran's oil exports are currently near zero.
Iranian Response and Domestic Sentiment
In Iran, the political mood has changed after the U.S. elections. Pro-regime crowds celebrated the Republican losses. Iranian officials view the election results as a rejection of Trump’s policies. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that the U.S. is in a state of decline. However, many Iranians feel anxious about the future due to worsening economic conditions. Some worry that Trump’s political setbacks could lead to more military aggression, as he may feel less limited by electoral pressures.
Related coverage: US, Israel Plan Renewed Strikes on Iran After Midterms.
The chance of renewed military actions could disrupt oil supplies, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil prices. Investors will closely monitor any military developments in the coming weeks, particularly before the new Congress takes office.
Based on reporting by: oilprice.com